Κυριακή, 4 Σεπτεμβρίου 2016

Weekend Metals Report from ElliottWaveTrader

Author: Avi
Is The Correction Over?
1to5MinChart, DailyChart, 120to144MinChart

GDX-8min
There are times in the market to be aggressive.  There are times in the market to be protective.  And, then there are times in the market to be cautiously optimistic.  Right now, I remain cautiously optimistic.
Last weekend, we were looking for the market to head to lower levels before we would expect a bottoming:
In the immediate perspective, as long as we remain below Friday’s high, I am still expecting a test of the lower levels cited above.  A break out over Friday’s high is the first indication that a bottom to this correction may have been struck, and I will be looking for the next bullish (i)(ii) set up to provide me higher assurance of that assumption.
This past week, the market headed down towards our lower target for the 5th wave of this correction, and consolidated near the lower end of our target before seeing a pre-market spike and reversal at a minor Fib support level on our chart at 25.17.
While the rally off that lower region seemed quite powerful in the GDX, I am not as impressed with the action I have seen in the GLD or silver. Even though I am maintaining an open mind regarding a bottom being in place, I still do not have strong confirmation that the market has begun a rally to appreciably higher levels just yet. 
Even before the market struck the bottom on Thursday, I sent out an Alert with a chart looking for the market to rally off the 25.17 region to the 26-26.50 region, and our higher target was struck later that day.  However, I continually noted that if the market was going to prove a bottom was in place, that would only be a wave 1 in a larger wave (i), which should be targeting the at least the 28.50 region, from which we recently broke down.  A move up towards that region would represent a sizeable 5 wave structure off the low, and would provide us with a strong initial confirmation that we are setting up for another major rally phase.
As you can see on the 8 minute GDX chart, we still have not completed the full 5 waves off that low, and need to complete waves v of 3, 4 and 5 of wave (i) to give us a strong bottoming signal. Any break down below 26.80 at this point can open the market to a drop down to the 24.35 region, as presented by the alt 4 in red, or would suggest that we have begun the blue b-wave rally we have noted on the daily chart.
Ultimately, if the market does not complete this 5 wave structure off this past week’s low, then I think we will likely see the 22-24.35 region before this correction completes, which may take us the entire month of September to play out.
When I turn to silver, which has been presenting strong bottoming signals, the rally of its low is in the same position as the one in the GDX.  It suggests that we will likely head to a lower low towards 18 region if we are unable to complete a 5 wave structure off this recent low. And, as noted many times before, the GLD has been holding its support really well thus far, and, from a wave structure, presents as does the GDX and silver, but has a more questionably impulsive initial move off the low struck this week.
So, if it sounds like I want to be optimistic, but do not have enough information to be confidently optimistic, you are right.  The market has not given me any reason just yet to be confidently optimistic.  But, should you see the market continue up early in the coming week to fill in the rest of the pattern I have shown on my chart, then you will know my attitude towards the market will have turned confidently optimistic. 
And, no matter what the market does, as soon as it provides us with an appropriate pattern to increase our confidence in what is playing out, I will send out an alert so we can narrow down the possibilities. But, for now, I am cautiously optimistic regarding the resumption of the bullish trend, but will still be protective of my long term long positions until greater confidence can be attained for the next bullish phase.

GDXdaily

GLDdaily


Silver 144 min

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