Κυριακή, 4 Σεπτεμβρίου 2016

USO: Weekend Analysis from ElliottWaveTrader

Author: Avi
USO: We Almost Had Clarity
Energy, 120to144MinChart

USO144min

As I have been noting for the last few weeks, the USO was presenting us with a very nice Fibonacci Pinball structure, but needed to hold support over 10.65 to complete a 5 wave structure. But, the break down below 10.65 has taken a chart that began to provide some clarity back into its old ways of providing us with too many possibilities to trade:
However, should the market break down before we complete 5 waves up, we will enter a much more complex pattern wherein the green b-wave may continue to form, or we may see a 1-2,i-ii bullish structure setting up off the lows. As I said, if we do not get a clean 5 up, it will make the chart a bit more complex. It also opens up the possibility for a lower low, as presented in the red count. So, I am “hoping” for that 5th wave to complete wave 1 of the c-wave, if only for the sake of clarity in a chart that has not seen much clarity for months.
In truth, this break down leaves us with a number of possibilities, none of which I can consider as a high enough probability just yet to want to trade.
From the bullish perspective, it is possible this pullback is a 1-2, i-ii structure, as presented in green. What this may also be is the start of an ending diagonal for the c-wave target above. Yet, we cannot assume this pullback is part of a bullish structure until we take out the last highs we recently struck.
From the bearish perspective, if we see a lower low in the coming week, then we may have 5 waves down off the recent highs, and a corrective rally will provide us with a short opportunity, as presented in the i-ii in the red count. This would suggest that we are going to see a c-wave down to complete the red count which has stubbornly remained on our chart this entire time.
We can even see a semi-bearish pattern play out where the green b-wave has not yet completed, and drops to just over the blue box on this chart.
So, as you can see, the break down which occurred before a full 5 waves up completed opened the door to further complexity in this chart. So, I will remain on the sidelines until the market choses to provide us some amount of clarity.

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