Κυριακή, 21 Αυγούστου 2016

Weekend Metals Report from ElliottWaveTrader

Author: Avi
How Many More Ways Can I Say “Sit Tight?”
1to5MinChart, DailyChart, 120to144MinChart

GDX-8min
From what I have been reading, many people have become impatient with the metals complex of late.  It seems many have been spoiled by the tremendous run the metals and miners have experienced this year, and if we have a period of time where the complex does not rally 5% or more, people think we are going to see a major correction.  Maybe they are right, as I certainly will not be right all the time.  But, right now, I am not seeing a major correction taking hold just yet.

While GDX has been consolidating for almost 3 weeks, gold and silver seem to have been consolidating for almost two months. The last time we experienced a consolidation like this in gold and silver, GLD ran from 115-131 while silver ran from 16-21 within 5 weeks.  I am still expecting a similar rally to begin very soon.
But, the potential for near term further downside does exist.  In focusing again on the GDX, I still do not have a cleanly completed c-wave down within the current consolidation.  Due to the overnight action hiding some of the wave structure on this last downside move on Friday, it is unclear to me whether the market is going to provide us with a double bottom at the 29.60 region, or provide us with an extended drop towards the 28.50 region early this coming week.  But, in either case, once this correction completes, my expectation remains that a strong rally will begin to take hold, and it seems that it may coincide with the next Fed meeting, which will have many believe the Fed “caused” the rally.
I am not sure how many more ways I can say that I believe we should “sit tight” as long as we are over support, but I am going to repeat what I have been saying for weeks:
So, as I noted last weekend, I am suggesting you continue to sit tight as long as the GDX remains over the 28.50-29 level, GLD remains over the 123.50/124.50 support region, and silver remains over the 18.80/19 support region.  And, as always, if there are any changes to what I am seeing in the charts, I will be sure to send out a mid-week metals update to alert you all to any changing circumstances. Remember, we are dealing in probabilities, not certainties.  So, while my primary expectation for us to be heading higher is at an estimated 70% at this point in time, that still does mean there is a 30% potential that a deeper retracement can take hold in the coming weeks. 
GDXdaily

GLDdaily


Silver 144 min

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