Κυριακή, 14 Αυγούστου 2016

Uso: Weekend Analysis from ElliottWaveTrader

Author: Avi
USO: The Bulls Now Have The Advantage
S&P500, 1to5MinChart, 120to144MinChart

USO 8min
With the USO moving through the 10.35 resistance level, the advantage has now moved to the bulls.  But, as I have noted before, I have serious doubts that any rally the bulls will see will only be part of a larger degree corrective rally.
The main reason I have to maintain this perspective is because the initial rally off the lows seen earlier this year can only be counted as an impulse in what I would consider a forced count, rather than a natural one.  While that forced count may wind up becoming the primary down the road, if proven so, I have to go with the greater probabilities which would classify it as a corrective rally.  It was for this reason that I was secretly “hoping” we would see a lower low in order to reset the potential count off the lows.  But, alas, that is not looking very likely at this point in time.

This leaves me looking up in the USO as this point in time.  As you can see from the attached 5 minute chart of the USO, our next test is the 10.75 region, at which time I will move support up to the 10.35 break out point.  And, as long as we maintain support on our way up to the 11.75 region, then we are on our way to completing wave 1 of the c-wave up to the 14 region, if not even higher.
Ultimately, it means that the green count is now the primary count on the chart.  However, a break down below support before this larger 1st wave of the c-wave completes, then it opens the door again for the possibility of lower lows or a double bottom in the red count.

USO144min

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