Κυριακή, 28 Αυγούστου 2016

Forex: Weekend Analysis from ElliottWaveTrader

Author: Avi
DXY: Our b-wave May Continue
Forex, DailyChart

DXY - Daily
I cannot say that I have seen a fully completed (b) wave within the purple b-wave in the DXY chart.  The current bottom we have struck seems just a bit too shallow to fill in the (b) wave within the count I have been following for quite some time. 
As I have said so often, b-waves and 4th waves are the most difficult segments of the Elliott Wave structure to track and trade.  While I can chose to not trade these structures, I do have to track and provide analysis for them.  I would imagine this is why I have been steadily losing my hair.  Well, to be honest, it likely has more to do with heredity.

So, right now, the market leaves me wanting for a better sized (b) wave.  To that end, I am “assuming” that we are still working on the b-wave of the (b) wave, as presented on the daily chart.  Again, this makes me believe that once this b-wave has completed, we “should” be heading down towards the 93 region.  This will also likely cause significant bearishness in the DXY, with everyone pointing out the clear heads and shoulders pattern.  But, my belief is that this will only be a fake out to the market, and will set us up for a (c) wave rally up towards the 98-99 region to complete the larger purple b-wave.
Ultimately, if I am correct in assuming we are in a larger degree 4th wave (which means we do not break below 90DXY), then we will likely be seeing several set ups in the next year which will convince most of the market that the DXY is about to crash.  But, as I have said so often, as long as we remain over 90, the likelihood is that we are setting up a rally over 100, rather than a break down below 90.  And, even in my more “bearish” alternative where we drop to 87DXY, that too would likely set us up for a rally over 100.  Therefore, my expectations over the coming years is that we will likely see the DXY well over 100 before we see a much larger and deeper correction.

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