Κυριακή, 10 Ιουλίου 2016

Spx: Weekend Analysis from ElliottWaveTrader

Author: Avi
Matter Of Time Before The Global Melt-Up
S&P500, 60MinChart
While there are many macro-economic events worldwide scaring people away from the market (aren’t there always?), the market set-up is still providing a strong bullish pattern which may see us breaking out towards 2500 even sooner than I had initially expected.
1turnchart
For those that remember my warnings back in January about not becoming too bearish when most everyone was expecting a market crash, I clearly noted that, “while things may look bleak out there after this past week, if you take a step back, and take a more global perspective, there are a number of emerging markets, along with oil and metals, that are entering a bottoming phase, which would suggest that we may be on the verge of a larger-degree, broad-based bull-market move in all types of asset markets across the world.”

Back in February, the market provided us with back-to-back 5 wave structures off the lows, and gave us warning that we were about to see a strong rally.  While that back-to-back structure was of a smaller degree, we now have back-to-back 5-wave structures of a larger degree, which is a strong indication that we may see the a much larger break out and rally sooner than I expected.

Moreover, in 2016, I have been preparing our members at Elliottwavetrader.net for a paradigm shift, within which we would see the metals rally alongside the equity markets and even the US dollar, in addition to many other tectonic shifts which would cause inter-market analysts to be scratching their heads. And, I think we are seeing the beginnings of this tectonic paradigm shift.

With the break out over 2114 on Friday, the market has given us stronger indications to take the immediate break out scenario much more seriously.  Remember, for the last few months, we have been tracking the set-up for the market to break out towards the 2500SPX region into 2017.  The question has only been one of timing to us.  Whereas the larger corrective pullback I was tracking would have seen us break out in later in the fall, the more accelerated set up may see that break out begin later this summer.
LONGTERMSPX

With the current rally approaching the all-time high in the SPX, it seems more likely that we are setting up in a (1)(2) i-ii structure off the February lows.  I have also added an upper pivot region on our 60 minute chart. Ideally, the market should not yet break out through this region before we see a wave ii pullback, even if we do see the market take out the prior all-time high.  What we are looking for is a wave ii pullback taking us towards the end of July, which will then set up a break out over the top of wherever wave i completes.  Once this occurs, we have our high probability signal that the market is heading towards at least the 2300SPX region before it sees its next pullback/consolidation.   And, once we are able to move strongly through this market pivot, we should not see it break back down through this market pivot for quite some time.
Ultimately, based upon the upside Fibonacci Pinball structure, once we see the strong break out over 2185, the market is telling us quite clearly that it has 2500SPX in its sights for 2017.  Specifically, if this current more aggressive bullish set up is maintained, our minimum target for 2017 is 2537, with an ideal target at 2610.  That means we may expect the equity markets to rally at least another 20% as we head into 2017, which has been our expectations through 2016, even though we recognized we have clearly been in the minority in that expectation.  But, until we receive our confirmation as noted above, I maintain cautiously optimistic.

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